It's well-known how non-adherence due to prescriptions never filled and medications not taken often enough erodes pharma's profit. A new study suggests these problems are much costlier to the drug industry than previously thought. Each year, $188 billion—an amount equal to 59% of their 2011 revenue—is lost to the US pharma industry as a result of non-adherence to medications for chronic disease, according to the study, conducted by Capgemini Consulting and HealthPrize Technologies. Extrapolated to a global level, the revenue shortfall from non-adherence reaches $564 billion, the firms said. That's much higher than an oft-cited 2004 analysis, which puts the amount of global revenue left on the table at $30 billion. An Express Scripts 2010 study estimated the loss to US pharma at $106 billion each year. The latest study is based on review and analysis of modern claims-based adherence literature and data.
Global ad spend is expected to rise by 4.3% this year and by 4.0% next year, according to the Warc International Ad Forecast, but only by +1.8% and +1.6%, respectively, when accounting for inflation. Warc's projection, issued fours times a year, is based on 12 major markets. Russia (+14.6%) and China (+12.5%) are predicted to be the fastest-growing ad markets in 2013, while the US—the world's largest ad market—is expected to grow at a slower rate of +2.5% next year, without the benefit of the election and Olympic spend, following predicted growth of +4.1% this year. Warc said it expects limited growth in the eurozone countries and Japan due to recession fears. The overall 2012/2013 rates are lower—by one-half and one-and-a-half points, respectively—than Warc forecasted in its June report, a downgrade which the intelligence firm attributed to “continued uncertainty about the global economy and future business conditions.”