IMS Health is forecasting a 4.5% to 5.5% growth in the global pharmaceutical market during 2009, with dollar amounts exceeding $820 billion.
In the US, the pharma market is predicted to grow by 1% to 2%—$287 billion to $297 billion—slightly less than the 2% or 3% rate previously expected, according to IMS Health's 2009 Global Market Forecast, published in October.
IMS projected only 25 to 30 new chemical entities slated for launch in 2009. Four or five of those products, in the areas of acute coronary syndrome, diabetes (Takeda's alogliptin; Novo Nordisk's liraglutide), rheumatoid arthritis (Centocor and Schering-Plough's golimumab) and meningitis (Novartis's Menveo vaccine), could turn out to be blockbusters, according to Diana Conmy, director of market insights for IMS. So-called “pharmerging markets” (China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia) are predicted to show the most growth, with numbers reaching $105 to $115 billion combined, according to the data.