Pharmaceutical market growth to slow in '07

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Growth of the global pharmaceutical market is expected to slow next year, according to prescription drug tracking firm IMS Health. Overall global market growth will be between 5% and 6% for 2007, compared with 6% and 7% for 2006, according to IMS Health’s 2007 Pharmaceutical Market Forecast. US market growth is predicted to slow to between 4% and 5%, compared to between 6% and 7% expected in 2006. The IMS Health study estimated that between 25 and 35 new products would be introduced to the US market in 2007, comparable to the 30 expected launches for this year. Meanwhile, prescription drugs with combined sales of $10 billion will go off patent in 2007, comparable to the $19 billion in product sales facing generic competition in the US in 2006, IMS Health said. Oncology products are expected to reach up to $45 billion in value in 2007, contributing to nearly 20% of total market growth, the report said. Lipid-lowering drugs will grow to $33 billion, reflecting an estimated 1% to 2% growth in 2007, down from between 7% to 8% this year. “In 2007, the market still will be absorbing changes that have defined a new economic reality, one in which growth is shifting from mature markets to emerging ones,” said Murray Aitken, IMS Health SVP, corporate strategy, in a statement. “New product adoption is not keeping pace with the loss of patent protection by established products, specialty and niche products are playing a larger role and regulators, payers and consumers are more carefully weighing the risk/benefit factors of pharmaceuticals,” Aitken said.
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