IMS Health has forecasted a 4.5% to 5.5% growth in the global pharmaceutical market during 2009, with dollar amounts exceeding $820 billion.

In the US, the pharma market is predicted to grow by 1% to 2%—$287 billion to $297 billion—slightly less than the 2% or 3% rate previously expected, according to IMS Health’s 2009 Global Market Forecast, published today.

So-called “pharmerging markets”, such as China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia, are predicted to show the most growth next year, with numbers reaching $105 to $115 billion combined, or 14% to 15%, according to the data.

Among therapeutic classes, oncologics is expected to grow the most, by 15% to 16% [$48-$52 billion] in 2009, followed by HIV Antivirals at 13% to 14% [$9-$13 billion], and narcotic analgesics, at 12% to 13% [$8-$12 billion].

In other findings, IMS projected only 25 to 30 new chemical entities slated for launch in 2009.  Four or five of those products, in the areas of acute coronary syndrome, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis and meningitis, could turn out to be blockbusters, the report speculated.

“Pharmaceutical growth next near will hold stead at 2008 levels,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, healthcare insight, IMS, in a statement. “The market will continue to contend with a number of forces – among them, the shift in growth from developed countries to emerging ones, specialist-driven products playing a larger role, blockbuster drugs losing patent protection, and the rising influence of regulators and payers on healthcare decisions. Layered on top is the uncertainty in the global economic environment and its effect on demand.”